Q4 2017 PRD Key Market Indicators - Victoria

Believe it or not…Victoria (VIC) is not the state with the highest decline in the number of first home buyer loans growth. That said, the number of first home buyer loans have decreased by 10.1% over the past 12 months (to June 2017), which interestingly is higher than New South Wales’ (NSW) decrease of 3.4%. 

The PRD Q4 2017 Key Economic Indicators provide consumers with a quick snapshot of the current state of affairs from an economic and property perspective. The PRD Key Economic Indicators cover both national and state level data, comprising of:

• Number of first home buyer loans
  
• Home loan affordability index
  
• Number of dwelling approvals 
  
• Consumer sentiment index
  
• Standard variable loan
  
• Consumer price inflation index
  
• Unemployment rate
  
• Weekly family income
  
• Nett migration
  

Unaffordability growth is officially higher in VIC than NSW, which suggests VIC may be on its way to becoming the most unaffordable state in Australia. Over the past 12 month (to June 2017) home affordability growth in VIC decreased by 2.0%, more than NSW’s decreasing growth of 1.5%. Furthermore, VIC’s first home buyer loans have decreased by 10.1% over the past 12 months, which is higher than New South Wales’ decrease of 3.4%. 

Another key finding for VIC is in relation to potential future demand for residential real estate, as nett migration has increased by 38.2% over the past 12 months (to March 2017), currently at 36,020 people. This is higher than NSW (37.1%), suggesting the need for even more properties in the near future. Interestingly, dwelling approvals in September 2017 were recorded at 5,362, which is a decrease of 1.9% over the past 12 months.

This suggests a true potential for undersupply in the market - welcome news for astute investors and developers looking to plan their next residential and/or mixed-use projects. There is a definite need to create more supply, considering the increasing levels of unaffordability within the state.

Good news can be found in the amount of people employed, with the unemployment rate decreasing by 1.7% over the past 12 months (to October 2017).  Furthermore those who are currently employed are enjoying an increase in household income, with the weekly family income increasing by 3.0% to $1,648. This suggests wage growth and strong potential for future economic growth.

For a closer look at the PRD Q4 2017 Key Economic Indicators visit PRD.com.au/research-hub