Q1 2018 Key Market Indicators – Victoria

And the highest number of first home buyer loans gold award goes to….Victoria!

Victoria has emerged as the state with the highest number of first home buyer loans for September quarter 2017, at 8,786 loans. This is higher than New South Wales (6,775 loans) and Queensland (6,271 loans), which suggests effective first home buyer related policies are in place. Although not the most improved, Victoria has reported a 33.0% improvement over the past 12 months. This is encouraging for first home buyers as there has been concerns of increasing unaffordability, especially in Melbourne.

Opportunities for Victoria lie in its population growth, as it takes out the gold award for highest nett migration (as of June 2017) at 19,562 people. This represents an 11.9% increase, which is actually lower than Queensland (72.7%) and New South Wales (39.2%). This is still a significant increase in population that will need a place to call home and thus, not surprisingly, Victoria took out the gold award for highest number of dwelling approvals (as of December 2017) at 6,603 approvals. However, Victoria only achieved the silver award for highest number of dwelling approval growth (as of December 2017) at 18.2%, which when compared with the percentage increase in nett migration suggests a potential undersupply in the near future, opening up opportunities for keen developers.

The home loan affordability index for Victoria increased by the least amount of growth over the past 12 months to September quarter 2017, at 0.6%. This brings the home loan affordability index to 31.1 points which is slightly better than New South Wales’ 27.7 index points but definitely lower than the Australian average of 33.0 index points. This should improve slightly over the next 6 months or so as Victoria won the silver award for highest median weekly family income growth (as of September quarter 2017) at 2.8%, bringing the median weekly family income to $1,663 per week.

The PRD Q1 2018 Key Market Indicators provide a quick snapshot of the current state of affairs from an economic and property market perspective. The Key Market Indicators cover both national and state level data, comprising of: 

  • Number of first home buyer loans
  • Home loan affordability index
  • Number of dwelling approvals
  • Consumer sentiment index
  • Standard variable loan
  • Consumer price inflation index
  • Unemployment rate
  • Weekly family income
  • Nett migration

For more information on the PRD Key Market Indicators please contact Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo, National Research Manager