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Q3 2017 Key Market Indicators – Victoria

The results are in: Victoria records the 2nd highest in home affordability growth, at 6.6% over the past 12 months to March 2017; and the 2nd highest growth in nett migration – by 25.9% over the past 12 months to December 2016.

The PRD Q3 2017 Key Economic Indicators provide consumers with a quick snapshot of the current state of affairs from an economic and property perspective. The PRD Key Economic Indicators cover both national and state level data, comprising of:

  • Number of loans to first home buyers
  • Home loan affordability index
  • Number of dwelling approvals
  • Consumer sentiment index
  • Standard variable loan
  • Consumer price inflation index
  • Unemployment rate
  • Weekly family income
  • Nett migration

A key finding for Victoria is in relation to potential future demand for residential real estate, as nett migration has increased by 25.9% over the past 12 months to December 2016, currently at 23,447 people. This is the 2nd highest growth out of all the states, and even higher than NSW (22.9%). Dwelling approvals in March 2017 is recorded at 5036, which is a decrease of 6.8% over the past 3 month, 14.2% over the past 12 months.

This suggests a true potential for undersupply in the market, a welcome news for astute investors and developers looking to plan for their next residential and/or mixed-use projects.

Home loan affordability growth in Victoria is the 2nd highest amongst the states, at 6.6% over the past 12 months to March 2017. At a reading of 30.8 index points this is still lower than the Australian average, however is higher that NSW’s reading of 27.7 index points. This is reflected in the 2.6% increase in number of loans to first home buyers over the past 12 months – currently at 6037 loans in March 2017. This is a contrast to NSW’s figures, which shows a decrease of 5.2% (over the same time period) to 3597 first home buyer loans.

The Victorian unemployment rate increased to 6.1%, however the weekly family income has increased to $1,639. This suggests wage growth and strong potential for future economic growth, which is good news for both owner occupiers and investors.