Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators – New South Wales

More opportunities for first home buyers in New South Wales 

New South Wales (NSW) continues to offer increasingly affordable opportunities in its property market, with its home loan affordability index at 28.3 points in the March quarter of 2019. This was a 3.3% increase in the past 12 months, which is on par with the Australian average increase of 3.4% and has earned NSW a silver award nationally for most improved home loan affordability index growth in the PRD Q3 2019 Key Market Indicator Awards.

PRD Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators - NSW

The number of first home buyer loans in NSW declined by -11.0% in the 12 months to the March quarter of 2019, which was on par with the decline in first home buyer loans across Australia, which dropped by 11.6%. Political uncertainty and tougher lending policies seem to have impacted first home buyers across Australia, including NSW. That said, a softening in median property prices across NSW means it record the lowest decline in the number of first home buyer loans compared with Victoria (VIC) at -11.9% and surprisingly, Queensland (QLD) at -17.1%. This demonstrates more resilience towards political uncertainty and lending conditions in NSW, potentially due to having a lower unemployment rate of 4.6% (in June 2019) compared with VIC (4.8%) and QLD (6.5%), as well as having a higher weekly median family income (of $1,774 in the March quarter of 2019).

NSW earned the silver award nationally in the highest number of first home buyer loans category, recording 5,790 loans in the March quarter of 2019. First home buyers will have more opportunities for the rest of 2019, as NSW also took out the silver award nationally for the highest number of dwelling approvals, recording 4,424 dwelling approvals as of June 2019. That said, developers need not worry, as although this indicates there will be more stock, it represents a -21.5% decline in the past 12 months. Thus, there is an opportunity for previously constructed stock to be absorbed by the market. Furthermore, nett migration into NSW increased by 40.4% in the 12 months to the December quarter of 2018, which suggests there is high potential for an increase in property demand soon.

The PRD Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators provide a quick snapshot of the current state of the market in Australia from both an economic and property perspective. The Indicators cover both national and state level data, comprising of:

  • Number of loans to first home buyers
  • Home loan affordability index
  • Number of dwelling approvals
  • Consumer sentiment index
  • Standard variable loan
  • Consumer price inflation index
  • Unemployment rate
  • Weekly family income
  • Nett migration

View the Q2 2019 Key Market Indicators