Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators – Tasmania
Tasmania wins gold for first home buyer activity
In the 12 months to the March quarter of 2019, Tasmania (TAS) recorded a 13.1% growth in the number of first home buyer loans, earning it a gold award nationally in the most improved number of first home buyer loans category in the PRD Q3 2019 Key Market Indicator Awards. This is an improvement from Q2 2019, where TAS earned a silver award nationally for the same category, with 23.3% growth in the 12 months to December 2018. This is a significant achievement for TAS, for several reasons. Firstly, the 13.1% growth is in stark contrast to the Australian average decline of -11.6%, once again establishing TAS as an opportune market for first home buyers. Secondly, first home buyer loan growth in TAS has been in the negative for a prolonged time, due to first home buyers feeling priced out by investor activity and an undersupply in new housing.Median property price growth in TAS meant home loan affordability declined by -3.4% in the 12 months to the March quarter of 2019, which is in direct contrast with the 3.4% increase experienced nationally. This is also the highest decline in home loan affordability growth across Australia, which may have worked to local first home buyers’ advantage, with interstate investors considering other options.
Nett migration in TAS increased by 39.5% in the 12 months to the December quarter of 2018, which is a contrast to the -3.0% decline it experienced in the 12 months to September 2018. With increasing nett migration comes additional property demand, however dwelling approvals interestingly declined by -8.8% in the 12 months to the June quarter of 2019. This suggests a slight dissonance between population growth and housing supply, opening the doors for developers.
The median weekly family income was $1,466 in the March quarter of 2019, representing 2.9% growth over the past 12 months. This is higher than the Australian average growth of 2.7%, earning TAS a silver award nationally in the highest growth in median weekly family income category. This has a positive multiplier effect on the economy, as higher incomes mean more potential spending on goods and services. This creates a steady platform for future economic growth in TAS.
The PRD Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators provide a quick snapshot of the current state of the market in Australia from both an economic and property perspective. The Indicators cover both national and state level data, comprising of:
- Number of loans to first home buyers
- Home loan affordability index
- Number of dwelling approvals
- Consumer sentiment index
- Standard variable loan
- Consumer price inflation index
- Unemployment rate
- Weekly family income
- Nett migration
View the Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators