Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators – Victoria

Victoria leads the nation!

Victoria (VIC) proved itself to be an extremely attractive state for investment, earning five gold awards nationally in the following categories of the PRDnationwide Q3 2019 Key Market Indicator Awards: highest number of first home buyer loans, most improved home loan affordability growth, highest number of dwelling approvals, highest weekly median family income growth, and highest nett migration.

 

Home loan affordability improved by 5.1% in the 12 months to the March quarter of 2019 to 30.8 index points. This is higher than the Australian average increase of 3.4%, which will benefit local VIC buyers. Not surprisingly, VIC recorded the highest number of first home buyer loans at 7,199 in the March quarter of 2019. Although this represented a decline of -11.9% in the past 12 months, it is on par with the Australian average decline of -11.6%. This suggests that the decline in first home buyer loans may not specifically be due to local market conditions, but rather, as a result of a larger national phenomena in response to tighter home mortgage lending criteria, and other political and economic uncertainties.PRD Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators - VIC

VIC leads the nation in terms of highest number of dwelling approvals, at 4,691 in June 2019. That said, this represents a -15.1% decline in the past 12 months. The dwelling approval conditions in VIC are a ‘win-win’ for all, as VIC earned a gold award nationally in the highest number of dwelling approvals category. This suggests there is a vibrant residential construction industry in VIC, particularly as the number of dwelling approvals declined by -20.6% across Australia in the past 12 months. However, a declining pattern in the past 12 months will allow for current and already planned stock to be absorbed by the market. This is further relevant as VIC also earned a gold award nationally in the highest nett migration category, at 19,351 people in the December quarter of 2018. This should translate to an increase in property demand.

 

Strong economic fundamentals exist in VIC, with its unemployment rate declining by -12.7% in the 12 months to June 2019. This is significantly above the Australian average shift of -1.9%, earning VIC a silver award nationally in the most improved unemployment rate category. Furthermore, the weekly median family income grew by 3.0% in the 12 months to the March quarter of 2019, slightly above the Australian average of 2.7%.

 

The PRDnationwide Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators provide a quick snapshot of the current state of the market in Australia from both an economic and property perspective. The Indicators cover both national and state level data, comprising of: 

  • Number of loans to first home buyers
  • Home loan affordability index
  • Number of dwelling approvals
  • Consumer sentiment index
  • Standard variable loan
  • Consumer price inflation index
  • Unemployment rate
  • Weekly family income
  • Nett migration 

View the Q3 2019 Key Market Indicators