Smart Moves: Regional Edition 2025

A New Chapter for Buyers

Property affordability reached new lows in the final quarter of 2024, with the National Home Loan Affordability Index falling to just 20.0 points - the weakest it’s been in more than a decade! Mortgage repayments are now consuming over half of household income, and in New South Wales, that figure climbs even higher.

For many, the dream of owning in a capital city is slipping away. But while those markets remain sluggish, regional centres are gaining ground, attracting a new wave of motivated buyers.

What the Data Shows

First-home buyer numbers dipped 1.3% nationally in the past 12 months to the December quarter of 2024. The biggest drops were in NSW and WA, while Queensland held steadier. Meanwhile, first home buyers must commit to a higher level of mortgage debt, by an extra 5.4%.

The February interest rate cut to 4.1% offered a brief boost, but it wasn’t enough to shift the metro markets. Instead, buyers are turning to regional locations with lower entry prices, better rental returns, and clear growth potential.

The report applies five key criteria to identify Australia’s most promising regional markets:

• Affordability – Lower median prices than capital cities.
• Sales & Growth – Positive price growth trends across houses, land, and units.
• Rental Yields – Higher returns and lower vacancy compared to the relevant capital city.
• Future Projects – Significant development is set to commence construction in 2025, with a focus on new residential stock to ensure buyers are able to access housing.
• Employment Strength – Unemployment rates at or below the national average (4.1%).

These ten locations represent a rare mix of affordability and future upside:

• Cairns, QLD
• Whitsundays, QLD
• Southern Downs, QLD
• Dubbo, NSW
• Port Macquarie-Hastings, NSW
• Shoalhaven, NSW
• Bendigo, VIC
• Greater Shepparton, VIC
• Wodonga, VIC
• Burnie, TAS

In Queensland, the selected LGAs come in 28.6% cheaper than Brisbane. In NSW, savings climb as high as 48.3% below Sydney prices.

What It Means for Buyers and Investors

The issue is not about speculation; it is about strategic timing. These locations show tight vacancy rates, above-average yields, and multi-billion-dollar pipelines of residential and infrastructure projects.

Whether you are a first-time buyer or a seasoned investor, these are the markets to watch and act on in 2025.