Q1 2019 Key Market Indicators – Victoria

Victoria leads the nation

Victoria (VIC) continues to prove itself as “the winning state” as we enter 2019, earning the highest number of gold awards nationally in the PRD Q1 2019 Key Market Indicator Awards. VIC earned gold awards nationally for: highest number of first home buyer loans, highest number of dwelling approvals, most improved unemployment rate, highest growth in median weekly family income, and highest nett migration.

Q1 2019 Key Market Indicators - VIC

VIC recorded the highest number of first home buyer loans at 8,601 in the September quarter of 2018. Although this is good news for the state, it also serves as a warning, as this is a -2.1% decline compared to 12 months prior (to the September quarter of 2017). This is in stark contrast to the 35.5% growth in first home buyer loans between June quarter 2017-2018 and March 2017-2018.

Declining growth in the number of first home buyer loans does not come as a surprise, as home loan affordability has decreased by -5.1% between the September quarters of 2017-2018. This is the largest decline in affordability across the states. That said, VIC’s home loan affordability index reading of 29.5 points in the September quarter of 2018 is still higher than New South Wales’ 27.3 index points, suggesting that those living in VIC still have an advantage.

VIC has strong economic fundamentals that will allow it to address home loan affordability in 2019. The VIC unemployment rate declined by a drastic -31.1% over the past 12 months (to December 2018), to an extremely low 4.2%. This is the lowest unemployment rate between the three largest states of Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland, and also below the Australian average of 5.0%. Median weekly family income increased by 2.9% between the September quarters of 2017-2018, to $1,711 per week. Thus, not only are there more people earning an income in VIC, they are also earning a higher income.

The PRD Q1 2019 Key Economic Indicators provide consumers with a quick snapshot of the current state of the market in Australia, from both an economic and property perspective. The Indicators cover both national and state level data, comprising of:

  • Number of loans to first home buyers
  • Home loan affordability index
  • Number of dwelling approvals
  • Consumer sentiment index
  • Standard variable loan
  • Consumer price inflation index
  • Unemployment rate
  • Weekly family income
  • Nett migration 

View the Q1 2019 Key Market Indicators